The Result of the Fluwelen Revolutie - Contract Players

The Result of the Fluwelen Revolutie - Contract Players

09/03/2014

During the season 2010-11 the Fluwelen Revolutie (Velvet Revolt) was started and now that we are few seasons further it is a good moment to investigate what has changed. We plan to make a comparison between the last two seasons before the fluwelen revolutie (2008-09 and 2009-10) and the seasons 2013-14 en 2014-15 (as far as possible) using some objective and quantitative measurements.
The first comparison we do is on the basis of the players that are under contract with Ajax, and we will have a look at the total number of contract players, the average age, and to which extend the players can be considered products of the youth academy.

Number

To specify the number of contract players in a season Ajax itself is looking at a few moments in the year, for their yearly reporting. Because it is in theory possible that players leave (transfers, on loan, contracts being terminated) and arrive (transfers, loan, youth players getting new contracts) just looking at moments is not necessarily reliable. That is why instead we use a variation of the FTEs (full time equivalents) in which each player for a season counts for the fraction of the season that he was under contract. The results are as follows:

Season Contract Players Youths Adults Contract FTEs On Loan FTEs
2014-15 70 18 52 64.6 4.9
2013-14 76 23 53 70.5 6.6
2009-10 76 24 52 73.1 7.7
2008-09 73 21 52 62.2 3.8

Of course for season 2014-15 some will still occur. Next to the FTEs the table also shows the total amount of contract players, subdivided in youth (for this measurement we took players below 18 at the start of the season as youth) and adults, and the number of players (also expressed in FTEs) that were on loan to other clubs.
We conclude that both for the total number of contract players as well as the ratio between youth and adults there is no significant change.

Average Age

For the average age comparison we took the average age of all contract players. The results are as follows:

Season Average Age
2014-15 20.71
2013-14 20.35
2009-10 21.20
2008-09 21.70

We conclude that the average age (that was already very low before the fluwelen revolutie) has significantly dropped. The comparison shows that the average age of the contract players of the current and previous season is almost 1 year lower the average age of the last two seasons before the revolution.
In combination with the earlier conclusion that the ratio between youth and adult players did not change significantly, this difference is caused by a change in the average age of the youth and/or adult players.

Own Youth

To quantify to what extend a youth player is a product of the own youth academy we use a measurement similar to the measurement the FIFA uses for the solidarity contribution. We look at whether players were playing for Ajax the seasons they celebrated their 12th through 23rd birthday. The first 4 seasons each count for 5 percent, the last 8 seasons each for 10%. If a player has not reached the age of 23 yet in the season we are investigating (which is the case for many players, as the average age is even below 23) we make a pro rata correction so that the percentages in the seasons from his 12th birthday onwards still add up to 100 percent.

Seasons FIFA Youth Percentage
2014-15 62.0
2013-14 56.3
2009-10 63.9
2008-09 62.9

The current seasons is a bit lower than the last two seasons before the fluwelen revolutie and the preceding season is even significantly lower. We conclude that it is not the case that Ajax has significant more products from their own youth academy under contract.

Conclusion

It is possible people expected that after the fluwelen revolutie there would be less contract players and more players from the youth academy under contract, both are not the case, as of yet. We do see a drop in the average age of the contract players at Ajax. This could be caused by the self-imposed maximums on transfer fees and salary, making it more difficult for Ajax to attract and keep more experienced older players.
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